I want to emphasize is this trading is not a sure thing. It’s not like a surgery. It’s not like a surgery where you know that if you can actually cut this muscle well, or you can cut this ligament well, and you can stitch up very nicely, definitely this guy can recover. It’s not like that. Trading is not like that. Trading is always about playing with probability, alright.
It’s not scientific totally, because the thing about human psychology and the way that people behave, yes, you can say that it’s scientific in one way or another. If you’re looking at just one person, yes, it can be scientific. But if you’re looking at a huge population of people getting in and out of the market, there’s really a lot of reasons that can cause people to buy and sell, okay. It’s not just fundamental. It’s not just technical. Sometimes it’s really just greed, fear, whatever, okay.
So the bottom line is it’s never scientific. So which means that the only best thing you can do is observe how the market behave. Come up with a somewhat rational, logical deduction of what is happening right now and what can you do from here. Take a small bet on your hypothesis. Put it in. Let the market tells you whether you are right, whether you are wrong. If you are wrong, just be humble, exit, have a small loss, look at the next idea, look at the next trade again. If it turns out to be profitable, try your best to maximize the return that you can, and then be happy that the market is willing to give you that. Alright?
And that’s it. That’s really just trading. There’s nothing too scientific or nothing that is too sure about trading at all.
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